Since Mar 4, 2026 — realized P&L (settled markets only)
Buy fills cross-referenced with settled markets. Click any column to sort.
| Entry Prob | P&L | Bets | Volume Traded | Win Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99% | +$36.91 | 12 | $684.09 | 75.0% |
| 98% | +$227.39 | 45 | $11,583.42 | 100.0% |
| 97% | +$547.89 | 125 | $21,570.85 | 99.2% |
| 96% | +$97.27 | 128 | $15,667.73 | 98.4% |
| 95% | +$311.87 | 58 | $6,540.13 | 98.3% |
| 94% | -$57.38 | 35 | $3,637.38 | 94.3% |
| 92–93% | -$105.41 | 49 | $3,098.41 | 87.8% |
| 90–91% | -$83.40 | 39 | $719.40 | 92.3% |
| 80–89% | -$404.48 | 26 | $1,878.48 | 73.1% |
| 70–79% | +$117.38 | 15 | $853.62 | 80.0% |
| 60–69% | -$85.28 | 19 1 open |
$828.28 $500.00 open |
57.9% |
| 51–59% | +$246.88 | 28 5 open |
$738.12 $49.30 open |
71.4% |
| <50% | -$169.25 | 180 2 open |
$3,934.30 $20.44 open |
30.0% |
Note: Edge degrades significantly below 94% entry probability — higher risk, lower win rates.
Comparing actual P&L vs what would have happened if you held everything to settlement.
| Strategy | Bets | Wins | Losses | Win Rate | Total P&L | Avg P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pure Holds (no sells) | 573 | 422 | 150 | 74% | +$620.83 | +$1.08 |
| Partial Exits (sold some, held some) | 8 | 0 | 8 | 0% | -$547.59 | -$68.45 |
| Full Exits (sold all before settlement) | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | -$308.24 | -$77.06 |
Exit details — actual P&L vs if you held everything:
| Market | Type | Actual P&L | If Held P&L | Difference | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles >=82° | Partial Exit | -$127.25 | +$597.74 | -$724.99 | Should have held (-$724.99) |
| New York >=65° | Full Exit | -$88.49 | +$16.51 | -$105.00 | Should have held (-$105.00) |
| New York 35-36° | Partial Exit | -$47.23 | +$51.90 | -$99.13 | Should have held (-$99.13) |
| Los Angeles >=88° | Partial Exit | -$24.33 | +$26.67 | -$51.00 | Should have held (-$51.00) |
| Chicago 61-62° | Full Exit | +$17.73 | +$41.04 | -$23.31 | Should have held (-$23.31) |
| Los Angeles >=68° | Partial Exit | -$28.78 | -$29.90 | +$1.12 | Exit saved +$1.12 |
| Los Angeles >=75° | Partial Exit | -$18.86 | -$22.08 | +$3.22 | Exit saved +$3.22 |
| Denver 26-27° | Partial Exit | -$9.04 | -$12.40 | +$3.36 | Exit saved +$3.36 |
| Denver 24-25° | Full Exit | -$4.58 | -$10.12 | +$5.54 | Exit saved +$5.54 |
| Phoenix 98-99° | Partial Exit | -$112.58 | -$133.56 | +$20.98 | Exit saved +$20.98 |
| Chicago >=39° | Full Exit | -$232.90 | -$276.33 | +$43.43 | Exit saved +$43.43 |
| Chicago 63-64° | Partial Exit | -$179.52 | -$235.93 | +$56.41 | Exit saved +$56.41 |
| Net Impact of All Exits | -$869.37 | Holding everything would have been better |
Unique bets bucketed by total market volume. Click any column to sort.
| Market Volume | P&L | Bets | Volume Traded | Avg Entry | Win Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (<10K) | -$201.07 | 157 4 open |
$13,228.07 $39.40 open |
74.3¢ | 70.1% |
| Mid (10K–75K) | +$396.07 | 327 3 open |
$40,374.69 $30.34 open |
84.8¢ | 73.1% |
| High (75K–250K) | -$151.32 | 42 | $7,143.32 | 90.6¢ | 73.8% |
| Very High (>250K) | +$473.04 | 18 1 open |
$6,753.80 $500.00 open |
74.0¢ | 83.3% |