Since Mar 4, 2026 — realized P&L (settled markets only)
Buy fills cross-referenced with settled markets. Click any column to sort.
| Entry Prob | P&L | Bets | Volume Traded | Win Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99% | +$7.76 | 3 | $161.24 | 100.0% |
| 98% | +$200.48 | 36 | $10,200.52 | 100.0% |
| 97% | +$250.69 | 38 5 open |
$8,328.31 $1,118.89 open |
100.0% |
| 96% | +$98.05 | 24 2 open |
$2,456.95 $384.50 open |
100.0% |
| 95% | +$158.67 | 20 1 open |
$3,161.33 $190.00 open |
100.0% |
| 94% | +$121.11 | 17 1 open |
$1,977.89 $111.13 open |
100.0% |
| 92–93% | -$121.14 | 19 | $2,181.14 | 89.5% |
| 90–91% | -$27.59 | 9 | $254.59 | 88.9% |
| 80–89% | -$219.14 | 17 | $1,372.14 | 82.4% |
| 70–79% | +$201.24 | 10 | $656.76 | 90.0% |
| 60–69% | -$84.63 | 15 | $796.63 | 60.0% |
| 51–59% | +$246.69 | 8 | $343.31 | 100.0% |
| <50% | +$429.41 | 7 | $297.59 | 42.9% |
Note: Edge degrades significantly below 94% entry probability — higher risk, lower win rates.
Comparing actual P&L vs what would have happened if you held everything to settlement.
| Strategy | Bets | Wins | Losses | Win Rate | Total P&L | Avg P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pure Holds (no sells) | 136 | 126 | 9 | 93% | +$1089.85 | +$8.01 |
| Partial Exits (sold some, held some) | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0% | -$387.37 | -$77.47 |
| Full Exits (sold all before settlement) | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | -$219.75 | -$73.25 |
Exit details — actual P&L vs if you held everything:
| Market | Type | Actual P&L | If Held P&L | Difference | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles >=82° | Partial Exit | -$127.25 | +$597.74 | -$724.99 | Should have held (-$724.99) |
| New York 35-36° | Partial Exit | -$47.23 | +$51.90 | -$99.13 | Should have held (-$99.13) |
| Los Angeles >=88° | Partial Exit | -$24.33 | +$26.67 | -$51.00 | Should have held (-$51.00) |
| Chicago 61-62° | Full Exit | +$17.73 | +$41.04 | -$23.31 | Should have held (-$23.31) |
| Denver 26-27° | Partial Exit | -$9.04 | -$12.40 | +$3.36 | Exit saved +$3.36 |
| Denver 24-25° | Full Exit | -$4.58 | -$10.12 | +$5.54 | Exit saved +$5.54 |
| Chicago >=39° | Full Exit | -$232.90 | -$276.33 | +$43.43 | Exit saved +$43.43 |
| Chicago 63-64° | Partial Exit | -$179.52 | -$235.93 | +$56.41 | Exit saved +$56.41 |
| Net Impact of All Exits | -$789.69 | Holding everything would have been better |
Unique bets bucketed by total market volume. Click any column to sort.
| Market Volume | P&L | Bets | Volume Traded | Avg Entry | Win Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (<10K) | +$200.05 | 27 4 open |
$2,159.95 $986.54 open |
87.3¢ | 92.6% |
| Mid (10K–75K) | +$287.05 | 83 5 open |
$18,235.95 $817.98 open |
92.3¢ | 90.4% |
| High (75K–250K) | +$239.07 | 18 | $5,982.93 | 96.0¢ | 100.0% |
| Very High (>250K) | +$535.43 | 9 | $5,809.57 | 86.4¢ | 100.0% |