Since Mar 4, 2026 — realized P&L (settled markets only)
Buy fills cross-referenced with settled markets. Click any column to sort.
| Entry Prob | P&L | Bets | Volume Traded | Win Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99% | +$7.76 | 3 | $161.24 | 100.0% |
| 98% | +$213.23 | 39 1 open |
$10,837.77 $13.74 open |
100.0% |
| 97% | +$533.74 | 90 7 open |
$17,750.26 $1,474.30 open |
100.0% |
| 96% | +$277.83 | 97 6 open |
$13,130.17 $1,329.22 open |
99.0% |
| 95% | +$312.76 | 46 | $6,151.24 | 100.0% |
| 94% | +$147.47 | 28 1 open |
$3,214.53 $101.95 open |
96.4% |
| 92–93% | -$122.93 | 26 2 open |
$2,454.93 $179.03 open |
88.5% |
| 90–91% | -$23.10 | 11 | $298.10 | 90.9% |
| 80–89% | -$266.14 | 19 | $1,435.14 | 78.9% |
| 70–79% | +$225.08 | 12 | $742.92 | 91.7% |
| 60–69% | -$78.85 | 17 | $811.85 | 58.8% |
| 51–59% | +$250.79 | 9 | $349.21 | 100.0% |
| <50% | +$458.57 | 8 3 open |
$318.43 $49.20 open |
50.0% |
Note: Edge degrades significantly below 94% entry probability — higher risk, lower win rates.
Comparing actual P&L vs what would have happened if you held everything to settlement.
| Strategy | Bets | Wins | Losses | Win Rate | Total P&L | Avg P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pure Holds (no sells) | 264 | 251 | 12 | 95% | +$1764.46 | +$6.68 |
| Partial Exits (sold some, held some) | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0% | -$387.37 | -$77.47 |
| Full Exits (sold all before settlement) | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | -$219.75 | -$73.25 |
Exit details — actual P&L vs if you held everything:
| Market | Type | Actual P&L | If Held P&L | Difference | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles >=82° | Partial Exit | -$127.25 | +$597.74 | -$724.99 | Should have held (-$724.99) |
| New York 35-36° | Partial Exit | -$47.23 | +$51.90 | -$99.13 | Should have held (-$99.13) |
| Los Angeles >=88° | Partial Exit | -$24.33 | +$26.67 | -$51.00 | Should have held (-$51.00) |
| Chicago 61-62° | Full Exit | +$17.73 | +$41.04 | -$23.31 | Should have held (-$23.31) |
| Denver 26-27° | Partial Exit | -$9.04 | -$12.40 | +$3.36 | Exit saved +$3.36 |
| Denver 24-25° | Full Exit | -$4.58 | -$10.12 | +$5.54 | Exit saved +$5.54 |
| Chicago >=39° | Full Exit | -$232.90 | -$276.33 | +$43.43 | Exit saved +$43.43 |
| Chicago 63-64° | Partial Exit | -$179.52 | -$235.93 | +$56.41 | Exit saved +$56.41 |
| Net Impact of All Exits | -$789.69 | Holding everything would have been better |
Unique bets bucketed by total market volume. Click any column to sort.
| Market Volume | P&L | Bets | Volume Traded | Avg Entry | Win Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (<10K) | +$505.11 | 68 9 open |
$10,184.89 $1,593.07 open |
92.7¢ | 97.1% |
| Mid (10K–75K) | +$976.48 | 162 7 open |
$34,158.52 $1,554.37 open |
93.7¢ | 94.4% |
| High (75K–250K) | -$98.80 | 24 | $6,920.80 | 95.9¢ | 91.7% |
| Very High (>250K) | +$553.42 | 11 | $6,391.58 | 87.3¢ | 100.0% |