Since Mar 4, 2026 — realized P&L (settled markets only)
Buy fills cross-referenced with settled markets. Click any column to sort.
| Entry Prob | P&L | Bets | Volume Traded | Win Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99% | +$7.76 | 3 | $161.24 | 100.0% |
| 98% | +$204.44 | 37 2 open |
$10,396.56 $441.21 open |
100.0% |
| 97% | +$473.21 | 77 7 open |
$15,710.79 $1,018.85 open |
100.0% |
| 96% | +$363.17 | 67 14 open |
$8,994.83 $1,776.54 open |
100.0% |
| 95% | +$243.94 | 34 5 open |
$4,795.06 $732.38 open |
100.0% |
| 94% | +$166.96 | 21 1 open |
$2,708.04 $122.66 open |
100.0% |
| 92–93% | -$117.48 | 21 1 open |
$2,228.48 $54.79 open |
90.5% |
| 90–91% | -$23.10 | 11 | $298.10 | 90.9% |
| 80–89% | -$217.19 | 18 | $1,386.19 | 83.3% |
| 70–79% | +$201.24 | 10 | $656.76 | 90.0% |
| 60–69% | -$85.25 | 16 | $797.25 | 56.2% |
| 51–59% | +$250.79 | 9 | $349.21 | 100.0% |
| <50% | +$429.41 | 7 | $297.59 | 42.9% |
Note: Edge degrades significantly below 94% entry probability — higher risk, lower win rates.
Comparing actual P&L vs what would have happened if you held everything to settlement.
| Strategy | Bets | Wins | Losses | Win Rate | Total P&L | Avg P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pure Holds (no sells) | 217 | 206 | 10 | 95% | +$1726.15 | +$7.95 |
| Partial Exits (sold some, held some) | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0% | -$387.37 | -$77.47 |
| Full Exits (sold all before settlement) | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | -$219.75 | -$73.25 |
Exit details — actual P&L vs if you held everything:
| Market | Type | Actual P&L | If Held P&L | Difference | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles >=82° | Partial Exit | -$127.25 | +$597.74 | -$724.99 | Should have held (-$724.99) |
| New York 35-36° | Partial Exit | -$47.23 | +$51.90 | -$99.13 | Should have held (-$99.13) |
| Los Angeles >=88° | Partial Exit | -$24.33 | +$26.67 | -$51.00 | Should have held (-$51.00) |
| Chicago 61-62° | Full Exit | +$17.73 | +$41.04 | -$23.31 | Should have held (-$23.31) |
| Denver 26-27° | Partial Exit | -$9.04 | -$12.40 | +$3.36 | Exit saved +$3.36 |
| Denver 24-25° | Full Exit | -$4.58 | -$10.12 | +$5.54 | Exit saved +$5.54 |
| Chicago >=39° | Full Exit | -$232.90 | -$276.33 | +$43.43 | Exit saved +$43.43 |
| Chicago 63-64° | Partial Exit | -$179.52 | -$235.93 | +$56.41 | Exit saved +$56.41 |
| Net Impact of All Exits | -$789.69 | Holding everything would have been better |
Unique bets bucketed by total market volume. Click any column to sort.
| Market Volume | P&L | Bets | Volume Traded | Avg Entry | Win Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (<10K) | +$365.25 | 49 12 open |
$6,638.75 $2,311.14 open |
92.9¢ | 95.9% |
| Mid (10K–75K) | +$729.91 | 138 8 open |
$29,477.09 $1,835.29 open |
93.8¢ | 93.5% |
| High (75K–250K) | +$249.32 | 20 | $6,272.68 | 96.0¢ | 100.0% |
| Very High (>250K) | +$553.42 | 11 | $6,391.58 | 87.3¢ | 100.0% |