Since Mar 4, 2026 — realized P&L (settled markets only)
Buy fills cross-referenced with settled markets. Click any column to sort.
| Entry Prob | P&L | Bets | Volume Traded | Win Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99% | +$7.76 | 3 | $161.24 | 100.0% |
| 98% | +$214.42 | 41 | $10,900.58 | 100.0% |
| 97% | +$518.57 | 115 3 open |
$20,562.43 $114.71 open |
99.1% |
| 96% | +$82.26 | 116 7 open |
$15,287.74 $142.22 open |
98.3% |
| 95% | +$309.98 | 51 3 open |
$6,503.02 $18.09 open |
98.0% |
| 94% | -$58.90 | 33 1 open |
$3,612.90 $9.44 open |
93.9% |
| 92–93% | -$84.65 | 36 | $2,977.65 | 91.7% |
| 90–91% | -$93.93 | 15 | $510.93 | 86.7% |
| 80–89% | -$405.09 | 25 | $1,873.09 | 72.0% |
| 70–79% | +$117.38 | 15 | $853.62 | 80.0% |
| 60–69% | -$85.28 | 19 | $828.28 | 57.9% |
| 51–59% | +$255.15 | 10 | $354.85 | 100.0% |
| <50% | +$414.29 | 12 11 open |
$372.71 $40.04 open |
41.7% |
Note: Edge degrades significantly below 94% entry probability — higher risk, lower win rates.
Comparing actual P&L vs what would have happened if you held everything to settlement.
| Strategy | Bets | Wins | Losses | Win Rate | Total P&L | Avg P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pure Holds (no sells) | 325 | 303 | 21 | 93% | +$1003.70 | +$3.09 |
| Partial Exits (sold some, held some) | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0% | -$387.37 | -$77.47 |
| Full Exits (sold all before settlement) | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | -$308.24 | -$77.06 |
Exit details — actual P&L vs if you held everything:
| Market | Type | Actual P&L | If Held P&L | Difference | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles >=82° | Partial Exit | -$127.25 | +$597.74 | -$724.99 | Should have held (-$724.99) |
| New York >=65° | Full Exit | -$88.49 | +$16.51 | -$105.00 | Should have held (-$105.00) |
| New York 35-36° | Partial Exit | -$47.23 | +$51.90 | -$99.13 | Should have held (-$99.13) |
| Los Angeles >=88° | Partial Exit | -$24.33 | +$26.67 | -$51.00 | Should have held (-$51.00) |
| Chicago 61-62° | Full Exit | +$17.73 | +$41.04 | -$23.31 | Should have held (-$23.31) |
| Denver 26-27° | Partial Exit | -$9.04 | -$12.40 | +$3.36 | Exit saved +$3.36 |
| Denver 24-25° | Full Exit | -$4.58 | -$10.12 | +$5.54 | Exit saved +$5.54 |
| Chicago >=39° | Full Exit | -$232.90 | -$276.33 | +$43.43 | Exit saved +$43.43 |
| Chicago 63-64° | Partial Exit | -$179.52 | -$235.93 | +$56.41 | Exit saved +$56.41 |
| Net Impact of All Exits | -$894.69 | Holding everything would have been better |
Unique bets bucketed by total market volume. Click any column to sort.
| Market Volume | P&L | Bets | Volume Traded | Avg Entry | Win Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (<10K) | +$406.36 | 86 11 open |
$11,807.64 $57.18 open |
92.6¢ | 95.3% |
| Mid (10K–75K) | +$406.56 | 203 11 open |
$39,243.44 $267.32 open |
93.5¢ | 92.6% |
| High (75K–250K) | -$179.30 | 26 | $7,351.30 | 95.9¢ | 88.5% |
| Very High (>250K) | +$558.34 | 12 | $6,396.66 | 87.3¢ | 100.0% |